Did The Phillies Miss Their Last Chance At Another World Series?

There couldn’t have been a worse way for the Philadelphia Phillies’ season to end. After losing only 7 games in the last month of the regular season, after seeing their brand new ace Roy Halladay stump the Cincinatti Reds in his playoff debut, and after winning a crucial NLCS game 5 to bring the series back to Philadelphia, it all came down to a called third strike—a call that was questionable at best. But a far worse scenario might now be gestating in the minds of the Phillies and their fans: Did the team just miss its last best chance at winning another World Series title?

 

At first blush, that’s a ludicrous question to ask. Remember, this is the team that still counts three ace-quality pitchers—Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels—as members of its pitching rotation, and each of them are under contract for at least next year. Also remember that this is the team that locked up star slugger Ryan Howard for another six years. And remember that this team will still see reliable players like Shane Victorino and Chase Utley, wearing Phillies red until 2012. So why wouldn’t they remain contenders?

 

The biggest obstacle the Phillies are facing is the contract status of its aging roster. Many of the team’s marquis players are 30 or older. And within the next couple of years, the team is going to have to make some tough choices about re-signing many of these players. Outfielder Jayson Werth, for example, is a free agent after this year. He’s 31 and will likely demand a sizeable contract on the market, which normally doesn’t scare the Phillies, except that they have such a long list of other players who will become free agents in the next two years. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (31), outfielder Raul Ibanez (38), pitcher Roy Oswalt (33), and closer Brad Lidge (33) are a few more Phillies’ regulars for whom 2011 is the last year in their contract. The team does have a $16 million mutual option on Oswalt and a $12.5 million option on Lidge, but the other two will hit the open market in 2012 if not resigned. 2012 will also see pitcher Cole Hamels (26) become arbitration eligible and pitcher Joe Blanton (29), outfielder Shane Victorino (29), and catcher Carlos Ruiz (31) enter the final year of their contracts.

 

Like I said, the financial issue of re-signing players normally isn’t a problem for the most popular team in the NL, but the money isn’t the main problem with re-signing. The problem is age. All of these players have the stats to justify big-money contracts, but they don’t necessarily have the longevity with which to continue producing those stats. Most MLB players begin to drop off statistically in their early 30’s, and the Phillies certainly don’t want to be stuck with old and unproductive players on their roster in a few years. So it’s likely that a few of the big names that Phillies fans have watched carry the team to four consecutive postseasons won’t be around for much longer. Add to that the fact that the team’s minor-league farm system isn’t as deep as they would like, and it’s very possible that some of these big names could also be shipped out of town via trades with up-and-coming franchises that need help at various positions in return for prospects. Either way, this Phillies team could take a very different shape over the next couple of years.

 

That certainly doesn’t bode well for the Phillies’ World Series aspirations in the near future. And while it also doesn’t mean that Philadelphia will have to wait another 28 years for a baseball championship, it might mean that because of the business of re-signing players, Phillies fans might have to watch their team make some tough decisions for the sake of the franchise’s long-term future rather than its short-term success. It might be a good time for the fans to temper their expectations a bit.