The Nationals Have Really Improved…Except When It Counts

The Nationals recently put together their first four-game win streak of the 2010 baseball season. They’ve also managed to win 66 games thus far, a total that eclipses the team’s total number of wins from last season by a good seven games. But before the D.C. faithful uncork their champagne in celebration, they should remember that any perceived improvement in the organization is really just smoke-and-mirrors. Here’s why.

In baseball, winning in April and September means absolutely nothing if you can’t win during the summer.

Here are some stats to chew on. In the month of April, the Nationals hit the ground rolling and started 13-10, putting them right in the thick of the NL East competition. In the month of September, the Nationals have thus far accumulated a record of 9-13 and look to be on a hot streak that should net them some quality wins during the remaining schedule. Combined, that’s a record of 22-23, which is pretty good considering the hard times that have befallen the Nats in recent years.

But here’s the thing (and if you’re good at math, you probably know what’s coming): If those 22 wins and 23 losses are removed from the team’s overall record, it leaves the Nationals with only 44 wins and 66 losses during the months between April and September, which means that during the summer—when most teams are building division leads or keeping pace with the leader in their respective division—the little engine that could in D.C. had pretty much squandered its fast start and was all but non-existent in the postseason discussion come late August.

Now, I’m well aware when it comes to other stats, the Nationals have undoubtedly improved. They have a better team ERA, a better home record, and a better bullpen than they did in 2009. And they could improve by as many as ten wins over last year’s embarrassing effort. But the fact is that those wins didn’t come when it counted (seriously, does anyone remember May and June, when the Nats only won 5 out of the 18 games that they played against a whole slate of AL teams that for the most part had sub-.500 records?) and the Nationals are still buried in last place. Again. So there’s no point in decorating a burnt cake with statistics.

I know I’m just griping, but I’m not ready to herald the beginning of a new era in the District. At the end of the day, wins are what matters most in major-league baseball and until the Nats can break the 81-game glass ceiling, any talk about improved statistics will still feel like a consolation prize.

And as a fan, I’ve consoled myself enough.