The Phillies Are Masters Of The Second Half

Back on July 21, the Philadelphia Phillies—winners of the NL East pennant for three straight years—were sitting in a seven-game hole, staring up at the seemingly uncatchable Atlanta Braves. The team was struggling through injuries and offensive inconsistency and the rumor around Philly was that the cracks might be finally starting to appear on an aging team. But that was July. This is September, and the Phillies just steamrolled the bumbling Washington Nationals to clinch the East pennant four the fourth time in four years. And, really, no one should be surprised.

That’s because the Phillies have been doing the “second half surge” routine for a few years now. Take a look at their second half win/loss columns over the past few years. In 2007, on their way to their first NL East title, they cruised to a 45-29 record after the break. In 2008, the team played to a 40-26 record on their way to winning a World Series championship. In 2009, the team finished 45-31, which helped them keep the Marlins and Braves at bay to win the division. And this year, the Phillies have a second-half record of 47-23. That means that over the past four years, the Phils are 177-109 after the All-Star break (that’s a winning percentage of .618). Even more impressive is the team’s September win/loss record over the same period of time: 72-40 (that’s an even better winning percentage of .643).

That’s what I like to call “late season dominance”.

So, how have the Phillies been doing it? It’s a pretty simple formula: consistent offense (for the most part), plus pitching that saves its best for last. Here’s what I’m talking about:

• Over the first half of their schedules in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010, the Phillies averaged 5.5, 5.0, 5.3, 4.7 runs per game respectively. In the second half, they averaged 5.9, 4.8, 4.7, 4.7 runs per game respectively. Not a lot of drop-off there.
• During those same years, the Phillies posted first-half ERA’s of 4.95, 3.90, 4.61, and 3.92. But in the second half, the team lowered their ERA each year, posting averages of 4.55, 3.88, 3.65, and 3.45. Lower ERA’s down the stretch can help any team make a postseason run.

There’s no need for any fancy stat-work. If a team can score consistently, and can keep other teams from scoring runs, the wins will pile up pretty easily. Luckily, that’s the Phillies’ modus operandi. And if that surprises anyone, then that person needs to pay a little more attention.