Shopping Dunn Is A Smart Move For The Nationals

There’s little doubt that re-signing Adam Dunn would be a wise move for the Nationals organization. But whether you like it or not, Rizzo & Co. are making a smart choice by continuing to put their team’s best power hitter on the market.

Let’s be clear: I’m on the “Bring Back Adam Dunn” bandwagon, even if I’m not as fervent as I was back in July. But at the end of the day, the Nationals are still trying to rebuild a struggling franchise and replenish a dried-up farm system, and they need to use whatever marketable assets they have in order to accomplish those goals. And while Dunn has been very productive throughout his career, a quick look at his statistics will show that he doesn’t quite have the “game-changer” reputation that would compel the Nationals to sign him immediately.

Here’s what I’m talking about.

• While Adam Dunn has hit 347 major-league home runs over a 9-year career (an average of 38.5 home runs per year), 196 of them (56%) have been solo shots. In contrast, only 11 of Dunn’s home runs (3%) have been bases-loaded grand slams and only 10% have come with two runners on base. So even though he’s a great hitter, he’s not necessarily a clutch hitter. Even this year, 20 of Dunn’s 31 home run shots have been with the bases empty.

• Add to that the fact that most of Dunn’s long balls (256, or 73.7%) have been hit in the first 6 innings of a game. It’s easy to see that he’s not as good in the later innings. What that means is that he can start a game well, but he can’t always finish a game well.

• And, finally, there’s the matter of what factor the home runs play in the game. In his career, Dunn has hit 37 game-tying home runs and 116 go-ahead runs. That’s around 44% of his total homer count, which means that 56% of Dunn’s homers have not tied games or won them. That means that more often than not, Dunn is either padding or cutting a lead. Once again, that’s very impressive, but it’s not necessarily leading to more wins.

Now, a fair criticism of the case I’ve just made is that it doesn’t account for the fact that most power hitters have lower home run totals in late innings because teams often won’t let them see hittable pitches at that stage of the game, or the fact that power hitters can get intentionally walked in some “multiple baserunners” situations. So Dunn’s performance in these areas isn’t necessarily his fault.

But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t had his chances. To take the anecdotal approach, here’s an example of what I’m talking about:

• In the National’s 8-2 loss to the Marlins this past Tuesday, the team had loaded the bases in the bottom of the seventh. There were 2 outs. Who else but Adam Dunn, the team’s big power guy, stepped into the batter’s box? Because Florida didn’t want to walk in a run, they opted to pitch to Dunn to get the 3^rd out. Everyone watching knew that a grand-slam would completely change the tone of the game. Dunn got a high and outside fastball and hit a fly ball out to left field…but the ball lost velocity mere feet from going into the seats. Easy fly out; inning over.

If Adam Dunn hits that one out of the park, it’s a different game. And maybe, just maybe, the contract talks start to heat up a bit.

No one would dispute that Adam Dunn is incredibly valuable to the Nationals. But he isn’t irreplaceable. And as an emerging team, the smart thing for the Nationals to do with the valuable players sitting in their lineup is to see what other teams are willing to offer.